Disclaimer: The tropical cyclone objective aids displayed on this web site are collected from multiple forecast centers and may or may not be the most current data available to the operational forecast centers. The MIT tropical meteorology group obtains these forecasts for research purposes and assumes no responsibility for their use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones. Concerned individuals or organizations should confirm these forecasts with official sources.
The NCEP track ensembles for each storm are available from NOAA.
CHIPS forecasts in ATCF format may be downloaded from this ftp directory.
Legend
Note: Last letter I in acronym denotes interpolation from previous forecast
CPHC: Central Pacific Hurricane Center
JTWC: Joint Typhoon Warning Center
AEMN: NCEP GFS ensemble mean
AFW1: MM5 AVN
AVNO: NCEP GFS run
A90E: NHC 90 Early (Statistical-dynamical model)
A98E: NHC 98 Early (Statistical-dynamical model)
BAMD: Beta and Advection Model (Deep layer version)
CHIPS ensembles: Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System. (pdf) These are constructed by varying the initial intensity, initial rate of intensification, and shear. Shear is derived from NCEP GFS forecasts.
COAL: NRL COAMPS
EGRR: United Kingdom Meteorological Office
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model
GFDN: FNMOC version of GFDL
GFDT: SAFA translated version of GFDN (SAFA=Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Aid)
HWRF: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
JTYM: Japan Meteorological Agency Typhoon Model
JAVN: GFS positions from WXMAP
LBAR: DeMaria barotropic model
NGPS: NOGAPS
NGPT: SAFA translated version of NOGAPS
SHIPS: Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System
STIPS: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction System (Pacific version of SHIPS)