Research Papers – Kerry Emanuel

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Tuckman, P. J., and Kerry Emanuel. 2024. “Origins of Extreme CAPE around the World.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 129 (22): e2024JD041833. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041833.

Jing, R., and Coauthors, 2024: TC-GEN: Data-driven tropical cyclone downscaling using machine learning-based high-resolution weather model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004203.

Wallace, E. J., S. Dee, J. Bregy, and K. A. Emanuel, 2024: A proxy system modeling approach to combining tree-ring and sediment-based paleotempestological records. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 39, e2024PA004870, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024PA004870.

Dormy, E., L. Oruba, and K. Emanuel, 2024: Eye formation and energetics in a dry model of hurricane-like vortices. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 81, 1565–1578, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0191.1.

Lin, J., and K. Emanuel, 2024: Tropospheric thermal forcing of the stratosphere through quasi-balanced dynamics. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 81, 561–582, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0081.1.

Stier, P., and Coauthors, 2024: Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation. Nature Geoscience, 17, 719–732, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01482-6.

Sarhadi, A., R. Rousseau-Rizzi, K. Mandli, J. Neal, M. P. Wiper, M. Feldmann, and K. Emanuel, 2024: Climate change contributions to increasing compound flooding risk in New York City. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105, E337–E356, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0177.1.

Emanuel, K., 2024: Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121, e2400292121, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400292121.

Lin, J., and K. Emanuel, 2024: Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121, e2319228121, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2319228121.

Begmohammadi, A., C. Y. Blackshaw, N. Lin, A. Gori, E. Wallace, K. Emanuel, and J. P. Donnelly, 2024: Integrating climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleohurricane records to assess storm surge risk. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129, e2023JC020354, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020354.

Emanuel, K., 2023: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01879-y.

Emanuel, K., 2023: On the physics of high CAPE. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 80, 2669–2683, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0060.1.

Meiler, S., A. Ciullo, C. M. Kropf, K. Emanuel, and D. N. Bresch, 2023: Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 371, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w.

Galewsky, J., M. Schneider, C. Diekmann, A. Semie, S. Bony, C. Risi, K. Emanuel, and H. Brogniez, 2023: The influence of convective aggregation on the stable isotopic composition of water vapor. AGU Advances, 4, e2023AV000877, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000877.

Schneider, T., and Coauthors, 2023: Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modelling and prediction. Nature Climate Change, 13, 887–889, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01769-3.

Emanuel, Kerry, Martin Velez-Pardo, and Timothy W. Cronin. 2023. The surprising roles of turbulence in tropical cyclone physics. Atmosphere 14, no. 8: 1254. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081254

Emanuel, K., 2023: Physically Based Weather Hazard Modelling: Accounting for Climate Change. J. Catastrophe Risk and Resilience (Essay; Inaugural issue).

Tuckman, P., V. Agard, and K. Emanuel, 2023: Evolution of convective energy and inhibition before instances of large CAPE. Monthly Weather Review, 151, 321–338, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0302.1.

Denniston, R. F., and Coauthors 2023: Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE. Science Advances, 9, eadd9832, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9832.

Meiler, S., T. Vogt, N. Bloemendaal, A. Ciullo, C.-Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, K. Emanuel, and D. N. Bresch, 2022: Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models. Nature Communications, 13, 6156, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1.

Rousseau-Rizzi, R. and K. Emanuel, 2022: Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s. Nature Communications 13, 5074.

Emanuel, K., 2022: Tropical cyclone seeds, transition probabilities, and genesis. Journal of Climate, 35, 3557–3566, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0922.1.

Lin, J., and K. Emanuel, 2022: On the effect of surface friction and upward radiation of energy on equatorial waves. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79, 837–857, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0199.1.

Gori, A., N. Lin, D. Xi, and K. Emanuel, 2022: Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7.

Stevens, B., and Coauthors, 2021: EUREC⁴A. Earth System Science Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021.

Zhu, L., K. Emanuel, and S. M. Quiring, 2021: Elevated risk of tropical cyclone precipitation and pluvial flood in Houston under global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 094030, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3d.

Khan, M. J. U., F. Durand, K. Emanuel, Y. Krien, L. Testut, and A. K. M. S. Islam, 2021: Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic-deterministic modelling approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2021, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-329.

Emanuel, K., 2021: Nuclear fear: The irrational obstacle to real climate action. Bull. Atomic Scien., 77, 285–289, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2021.1989192.

Studholme, J., A. V. Fedorov, S. K. Gulev, K. Emanuel, and K. Hodges, 2021: Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates. Nature Geoscience, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1.

Sroka, S., and K. Emanuel, 2022: Sensitivity of sea-surface enthalpy and momentum fluxes to sea spray microphysics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127, e2021JC017774, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017774.

Emanuel, K., 2021: Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years. Nature Communications, 12, 7027, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27364-8.

Jing, R., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, G. Vecchi, and T. R. Knutson, 2021: A comparison of tropical cyclone projections in a high-resolution global climate model and from downscaling by statistical and statistical-deterministic methods. Journal of Climate, 34, 9349–9364, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0071.1.

Rousseau-Rizzi, R., and K. Emanuel, 2021: A Weak Temperature Gradient Framework to Quantify the Causes of Potential Intensity Variability in the Tropics. Journal of Climate, 1–48, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0139.1.

Geiger, T., J. Gütschow, D. N. Bresch, K. Emanuel, and K. Frieler, 2021: Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9.

Thiery By Wim, and Coauthors, 2021: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 373, eabi7339, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339.

Wallace, Elizabeth J., S. G. Dee, and K. A. Emanuel, 2021: Resolving Long-Term Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using a Pseudo Proxy Paleotempestology Network Approach. Geophysical Research Letters ,48, e2021GL094891. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094891.

Sroka, S., and K. Emanuel, 2021: A review of parameterizations for enthalpy and momentum fluxes from sea spray in tropical cyclones. J. Phys. Ocean., 51, 3053 – 3069, 10.1175/JPO-D-21-0023.1

Karnauskas, K. B., L. Zhang, and K. A. Emanuel, 2021: The Feedback of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091676

Dandoy, S., F. S. R. Pausata, S. J. Camargo, R. Laprise, K. Winger, and K. Emanuel, 2021: Atlantic hurricane response to Saharan greening and reduced dust emissions during the mid-Holocene. Clim. Past, 17, 675-701, doi:10.5194/cp-17-675-2021.

Emanuel , K., 2021: Tropical cyclone risk in Bangladesh. Mausam, 72, 27-34.

Bates, P. D., and coauthors, 2021: Combined modeling of us fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazard under current and future climates. Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028673, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028673.

Wallace, E. J., S. Coats, K. Emanuel, and J. P. Donnelly, 2021: Centennial-scale shifts in storm frequency captured in paleohurricane records from the Bahamas arise predominantly from random variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091145, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091145.

Emanuel, K., 2021: Response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing CO2 : Results from downscaling CMIP6 models. J. Climate, 34, 57-70, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0367.1.

Emanuel, K., 2020: Nuclear salvation. The Bridge, 50, 52-54.

Lin, J., K. Emanuel, and J. L. Vigh, 2020: Forecasts of hurricanes using large-ensemble outputs. Wea. Forecast., 35, 1713-1731, doi:10.1175/waf-d-19-0255.1.

Bony, S., A. Semie, R. J. Kramer, B. Soden, A. M. Tompkins, and K. A. Emanuel, 2020: Observed modulation of the tropical radiation budget by deep convective organization and lower-tropospheric stability. AGU Advances, 1, e2019AV000155, doi:10.1029/2019av000155.

Lange, S., and Coauthors, 2020: Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. Earth’s Future, 8, e2020EF001616, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001616.

Emanuel, K., and R. Rousseau-Rizzi, 2020: Reply to ‘Comments on “An Evaluation of Hurricane Superintensity in Axisymmetric Numerical Models”. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 3977–80.

Vosper, E., D. Mitchell, and K. Emanuel, 2020: Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the Paris agreement goals. Environ Res Lett, 15, 104053, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794.

Chang, D., S. Amin, and K. Emanuel, 2020: Modeling and parameter estimation of hurricane wind fields with asymmetry. J. App. Meteor. Clim., 59, 687-705, doi:10.1175/jamc-d-19-0126.1.

Chen, D., and Coauthors, 2020: Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 72, 1-13, doi:10.1080/16000889.2020.1794236.

Emanuel, K., 2020: The relevance of theory for contemporary research in atmospheres, oceans, and climate. AGU Advances, 1, e2019AV000129, doi:10.1029/2019av000129.

Knutson, T., and Coauthors, 2020: Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E303-E322, doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0194.1.

Emanuel, K., 2020: Slow modes of the equatorial waveguide. J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 1575-1582, doi:10.1175/jas-d-19-0281.1.

Chen, A., K. A. Emanuel, D. Chen, C. Lin, and F. Zhang, 2020: Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River basin. Science Bulletin, 65, 419-424, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022.

Knutson, T., and Coauthors, 2019: Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part I: Detection and attribution. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 1987-2007, doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0189.1. Supplementary material here.

Marsooli, R., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, and K. Feng, 2019: Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along us Atlantic and gulf coasts in spatially varying patterns. Nat Commun, 10, 3785, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z. Supplementary information.

Tao, D., K. Emanuel, F. Zhang, R. Rotunno, M. M. Bell, and R. G. Nystrom, 2019: Evaluation of the assumptions in the steady-state tropical cyclone self-stratified outflow using three-dimensional convection-allowing simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 2995-3009, doi:10.1175/jas-d-19-0033.1.

Feldmann, M., K. Emanuel, L. Zhu, and U. Lohmann, 2019: Estimation of Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall frequency in the United States. J. App. Meteor. Clim., 58, 1853-1866, doi:10.1175/jamc-d-19-0011.1. Supplementary material.

Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2019: Seasonal cycles of along-track tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 2417-2432, doi:10.1175/mwr-d-19-0021.1.

Sobel, A. H., C.-Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, K. T. Mandli, K. A. Emanuel, P. Mukhopadhyay, and M. Mahakur, 2019: Tropical cyclone hazard to Mumbai in the recent historical climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 2355-2366, doi:10.1175/mwr-d-18-0419.1.

Rousseau-Rizzi, R., and K. Emanuel, 2019: An evaluation of hurricane superintensity in axisymmetric numerical models. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1697-1708, doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0238.1.

Zhang, F., Y. Q. Sun, L. Magnusson, R. Buizza, S.-J. Lin, J.-H. Chen, and K. Emanuel, 2019: What is the predictability limit of midlatitude weather? J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1077-1091, doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0269.1.

Irvine, P., K. Emanuel, J. He, L. W. Horowitz, G. Vecchi, and D. Keith, 2019: Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards. Nat Clim Change, 9, 295-299, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8.

Alley, R. B., K. A. Emanuel, and F. Zhang, 2019: Advances in weather prediction. Science, 363, 343-344

Emanuel, K., 2019: Inferences from simple models of slow, convectively coupled processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 195-208, doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0090.1.

Zhang, F., and K. Emanuel, 2018: Promises in air-sea fully coupled data assimilation for future hurricane prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13,173-113,177, doi:10.1029/2018gl080970.

Mora, C., and Coauthors, 2018: Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nat Clim Change, 8, 1062-1071, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6.

Komurcu, M., K. A. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. P. Acosta, 2018: High-resolution climate projections for the northeastern United States using dynamical downscaling at convection-permitting scales. Earth and Space Science, 5, 801-826, doi:10.1029/2018EA000426.

Khairoutdinov, M. F., and K. Emanuel, 2018: Intraseasonal variability in a cloud-permitting near-global equatorial aquaplanet model. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 4337-4355, doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0152.1.

Emanuel, K., 2018: 100 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Research. Meteorological Monographs, 59, 15.11-15.68, doi:10.1175/amsmonographs-d-18-0016.1.

Nuijens, L., and K. Emanuel, 2018: Congestus modes in circulating equilibria of the tropical atmosphere in a two-column model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3385.

Beucler, T., T. Cronin, and K. Emanuel, 2018: A linear response framework for radiative-convective instability. JAMES, 10, 1924-1951, doi:10.1029/2018MS001280.

Lu, P., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, D. Chavas, and J. Smith, 2018: Assessing hurricane rainfall mechanisms using a physics-based model: Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Irene (2011). J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 2337-2358, doi:10.1175/jas-d-17-0264.1.

Nystrom, R. G., F. Zhang, E. B. Munsell, S. A. Braun, J. A. Sippel. Y. Weng, and K. Emanuel, 2018: Predictability and dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) explored through convection-permitting ensemble sensitivity experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 401-424.

Wing, A. A., K. Emanuel, C.E. Holloway and C. Muller, 2017: Convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations: A review. Surv. Geophys. DOI 10.1007/s10712-017-9408-4.

Doyle, J.D.; Moskaitis, J.R.; Feldmeier, J.W.; Ferek, R.J.; Beaubien, M.; Bell, M.M.; Cecil, D.L.; Creasey, R.L.; Duran, P.; Elsberry, R.L.; et al. A View of Tropical Cyclones from above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017, 98, 2113–2134, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0055.1.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc Net. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1716222114.

Garner, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, R. E. Kopp, N. Lin, , R. B. Alley, B. P. Horton, R. M. DeConto, J. P. Donnelly, and D. Pollard, 2017: Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1703568114.

Bony, S., and co-authors: EUREC⁴A, 2017: A field campaign to elucidate the couplings between clouds, convection and circulation. Surv. Gephys. DOI 10.1007/s10712-017-9428-0

Agard, V. and K. Emanuel, 2017: Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of peak CAPE in continental convective storm environments. J. Amos.Sci., 74, 3043-3054.

Frieler, K., and Coauthors, 2017: Assessing the impacts of 1.5^o C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017.

Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2017: On the seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone potential intensity. J. Clim., 30, 6085-6096.

Emanuel, K., and F. Zhang, 2017: The role of inner-core moisture in tropical cyclone predictability and practical forecast skill. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2315-2324.

Pausata, F. S. R., K. A. Emanuel, M. Chiacchio, G. T. Diro, Q. Zhang, L. Sushama, J.C. Stager, and J. P. Donnelly, 2017: Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1619111114.

Emanuel, K., 2017: A fast intensity simulator for tropical cyclone risk analysis. Nat. Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2890-7.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Will global warming make hurricane forecasting more difficult? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 495-501.

Zhang, L., K. B. Karnauskas, J. P. Donnelly, and K. Emanuel, 2017: Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming: Application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models. J. Clim., 30, 1233-1243.

Nakamura, J., and Coauthors, 2017: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 9721-9744, doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2017: Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models. J. Clim, 30, 279-299.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. A. Zamora, 2017: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels. J. Clim, 30, 649-667.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2016: Comment on ‘Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones’. Environ. Res. Lett., 11, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/068001

Emanuel. K., and F. Zhang, 2016: On the predictability and error sources of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci, 73, 3739-3747

Balaguru, K., G. R. Foltz, L. R. Leung, and K. A. Emanuel, 2016: Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons. Nature Comm., DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13670.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and S. J. Carmargo, 2016: Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate, 29, 5725-5739.

Zhang, F. and K. Emanuel, 2016: On the role of surface fluxes and WISHE in tropical cyclone intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 2011-2019.

O’Neill, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, and G. R. Flierl, 2016: Weak jets and strong cyclones: Shallow-water modeling of giant planet polar caps. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1841-1855.

Reed, A. J., M E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, N. Lin, B. P. Horton, A.C. Kemp, and J. P. Donnelly, 2015: Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615.

Reed, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and D. W. Titley, 2015: An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7506-7519. Copyright 2015, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Wing, A.A., K. Emanuel, and S. Solomon, 2015: On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8669–8677. Copyright 2015, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Walsh, K. and co-authors, 2015: Hurricanes and climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 997-1017.

Emanuel, K., 2015: Effect of upper-ocean evolution on projected trends in tropical cyclone activity. J. Clim., 28, 8165-8170.

Balaguru, K., G. R. Foltz, L R. Leung, E. D’Asaro, K. A. Emanuel, HJ. Liu, and S. E. Zedler, 2015: Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean’s impact on tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6739–6746.

Lin, N. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Grey swan tropical cyclones. Nature Clim. Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2777. Supplementary information.

Chavas, D. R., N. Lin, and K. Emanuel, 2015: A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3647–3662.

Dwyer, J. D., S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, M. Biasutti, K. A. Emanuel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and M. K. Tippett, 2015: Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Length of the Tropical Cyclone Season. J. Climate, 28, 6181–6192. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1

O’Neill, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, and G. R. Flierl, 2015: Polar vortex formation in giant planet atmospheres due to moist convection. Nature Geo., 8, 523-526.

Neumann, J. E., K. A. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. C. Ludwig, and C. Verly, 2015: Risks of coastal storm surge and the effect of sea level rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Sustainability, 7, 6553-6572

Kowch, R. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Are special processes at work in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones? Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 878-882.

Daloz, A.S., and co-authors, 2015: Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1333-1361.

Cronin, T. W., K. A. Emanuel, and P. Molnar, 2014: Island precipitation enhancement and the diurnal cycle in radiative-convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2443

Neumann, J. E., K. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. Ludwig, P. Kirshen, K. Bosma, and J. Martinich, 2014: Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, ad benefits of mitigation policy. Clim. Change, 128, doi 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z

Garman, D., K. Emanuel, and B. Phillips, 2014: Breaking the climate deadlock. Issues in Science and Technology, 30, 75-82.

Lin, N., P. Lane, K. A. Emanuel, R. M., Sullivan, and J. P. Donnelly, 2014: Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.

Vincent, E. M., K. A. Emanuel, L. Matthieu, J. Vialard, and G. Madec, 2014: Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones. J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 6, DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000327.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, 509, 349-352.

Vergados, P., Z. J. Luo, K. Emanuel, and A. J. Mannucci, 2014: Observational tests of hurricane intensity estimations using GPS radio occultations. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1936-1948, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020934.

Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2014: Equilibrium tropical cyclone size in an idealized state of axisymmetric radiative–convective equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1663-1680.

Aerts, C. J. H. J., W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, N. Lin, H. de Moel, and E. O. Michel-Kerjan, 2014: Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science, 344, 473-475.

Wing, A. A., and K. A. Emanuel, 2014: Physical mechanisms controlling self-aggregation of convection in idealized numerical modeling simulations . J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 6, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000269.

Emanuel, K., A. A. Wing, and E. M. Vincent, 2014: Radiative-Convective Instability. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 6, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000270.

Bony, S., B. Stevens, I. H. Held, J. F. Mitchell, J.-L. DuFresne, K. A. Emanuel, P. Friedlingstein, S. Griffies, and C. Senior, 2013: Carbon dioxide and climate: Perspectives on a scientific assessment. In Climate Science for Serving Society, Springer, pp 391-413.

Zhu, L., S. M. Quiring, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation risk in Texas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6225–6230, doi:10.1002/2013GL058284.

Sieron, S. B., F. Zhang, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Feasibility of tropical cyclone intensity estimation using satellite-borne radiometer measurements: An observing system simulation experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5332–5336, doi:10.1002/grl.50973.

Strazzo, S., J. B. Elsner, J.C. Trapnier, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi: 10.1002/jame.20036.

Khairoutdinov, M, and K. Emanuel, 2013: Rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulated by a cloud-resolving model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000253.

Cronin, T. W., and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: The climate time scale in the approach to radiative-convective equilibrium. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi:10.1002/jame.20049.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013: Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 110, doi/10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

Emanuel, K., and A. Sobel, 2013: Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi:10.1002/jame.20032.

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2013: Medicane risk in a changing climate. J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50475.

Emanuel, K., S. Solomon, S., D. Folini, S. Davis, and C. Cagnazzo, 2013: Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Clim., 26, 2288-2301.

Aerts, J. C. J. H., N. Lin, W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, and H. de Moel, 2013: Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City. Risk Analysis, 33, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12008

Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and J. L. Evans, 2013: Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13,383–13,392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380.

Kunkel, K. E., and co-authors, 2013: Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514.

Berlengiero, M., K. A. Emanuel, J. von Hardenberg, A. Provenzale, and E. A. Spiegel, 2012: Internally cooled convection: A fillip for Philip. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simulat. 17, 1998–2007

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2012: A ventilation index for tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1901-1912.

Bell, M. M., M. T. Montgomery, and K. A. Emanuel, 2012: Air-sea enthalpy and momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3197-3222.

Leibowicz, B. D., D. S. Abbot, K. Emanuel, and E. Tziperman, 2012: Correlation between present-day model simulation of Arctic cloud radiative forcing and sea ice consistent with positive winter convective cloud feedback. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 4, doi:10.1029/2012MS000153.

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2012: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to ventilation in an axisymmetric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2394-2413.

Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Wea. Clim. Soc., 4, 110-117.

Emanuel, K., 2012: Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow: Part II: Implications for storm intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 988-996. Corrigendum.

Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1389.

Mendelsohn R., K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, and L. Bakkensen, 2012: The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1357. Supplementary Information.

Klima, K., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, M. G. Morgan, and I Grossman, 2011: Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, doi: 10.1021/es202640p.

Klima, K., M. G. Morgan, I. Grossman, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment. Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, 4242–4248.

Emanuel, K., 2011: Edward Norton Lorenz, 1917-2008. National Academy of Sciences, http://www.nasonline.org/publications/biographical-memoirs/memoir-pdfs/lorenz-edward.pdf.

Emanuel, K., 2011: Global warming effects on U.S. hurricane damage. Wea. Clim. Soc., 3, 261-268.

Emanuel, K., and R. Rotunno, 2011: Self-Stratification of Tropical Cyclone Outflow. Part I: Implications for Storm Structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2236-2249.

Parodi, A., E. Foufoula-Georgiou, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Signature of microphysics on spatial rainfall statistics. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D14119, doi:10.1029/2010JD015124.

Bister, M., N. Renno, O. Pauluis, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Comment on Makarieva et al. ‘A critique of some modern applications of the Carnot heat engine concept: the dissipative heat engine cannot exist‘. Proc. R. Soc., A, 467, 1-6.

Rappin, E. D., D. S. Nolan, and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium with shear. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136, 1954–1971.

Emanuel, K., K. Oouchi, M. Satoh, T. Hirofumi, and Y. Yamada, 2010: Comparison of explicitly simulated and downscaled tropical cyclone activity in a high-resolution global climate model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 2, DOI:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.9.

Gnanadesikan, A., K. Emanuel, G.A. Vecchi, W. G. Anderson, and R. Hallberg, 2010: How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, doi:10.1029/2010GL044514.

Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: A QuickSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18816, doi:10.1029/2010GL044558.

Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. Vanmarcke, 2010: Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD013630.

Emanuel, K., and T. Jagger, 2010: On estimating hurricane return periods. J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 49, 837-844.

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2010: Midlevel ventilation’s constraint on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1817-1830.

Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geo., 3, 157-163.

Federov, A. V., C. M. Breierly, and K. Emanuel, 2010: Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch. Nature, 463, 1066-1070.

Emanuel, K., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.

Parodi, A., and K. Emanuel, 2009: A theory for buoyancy and velocity scales in deep moist convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3449-3463.

Muller, C. J., L. E. Back, P. A. O’Gorman, and K. A. Emanuel, 2009: A model for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vapor. Geophys. Res.Lett., 36, L16804, doi:10.1029/2009GL039667.

Dean, L., K. A. Emanuel, and D. R. Chavas, 2009: On the size distribution of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14803, doi:10.1029/2009GL039051.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2009: Annual intensification of the Somali jet in a quasi-equilibrium framework: Observational composites. Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 135, 319-335.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008: Wind–evaporation feedback and the axisymmetric transition to angular momentum–conserving Hadley flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3758-3778.

Emanuel, K., J. Callaghan, and P. Otto, 2008: A hypothesis for the re-development of warm-core cyclones over northern Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3863-3872.

Woodruff, J. D., J. P. Donnelly, K. Emanuel, and P. Lane, 2008: Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.

Emanuel, K., 2008: The Hurricane-Climate Connection. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, ES10-ES20.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008: Wind–evaporation feedback and abrupt seasonal transitions of weak, axisymmetric Hadley circulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2194-2214.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc,, 89, 347-367.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, and J. R. Scott, 2008: Tropical cyclone-induced upper-ocean mixing and climate: Application to equable climates. J. Climate, 21, 638-654.

Luo, Z., G. L. Stephens, K. A. Emanuel, D. G. Vane, N. Tourville, and J. M. Haynes, 2008: On the use of CloudSat and MODIS data for estimating hurricane intensity. IEEE Geoscience Remote Sensing Lett., 5, 13-16.

Pasquero, C., and K. Emanuel, 2008: Tropical cyclones and transient upper-ocean warming. J. Climate, 21, 149-162.

Emanuel, K., 2008: Back to Norway: An essay. In Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Meteorological Monographs, 33, 87–96.

Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative–convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.

Abbot, D. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: A tropical and subtropical land-sea-atmosphere drought oscillation mechanism. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4458-4466.

Emanuel, K., 2007: Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J. Climate, 20, 5497-5509.

Emanuel, K., 2007: Quasi-Equilibrium Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere. In The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. Schneider and A. H. Sobel, editors, Princeton University Press, 385 pp. Click here for link to whole book. Chapter 7 reprinted with kind permission from Princeton University Press.

Korty, R. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: The dynamic response of the winter stratosphere to an equable climate surface temperature gradient. J. Climate, 20, 5213-5228.

Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.

Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster, 2007: Atlantic tropical cyclones revisited. EOS, 88, 349-350.

Frappier, A., T. Knutson, K.-B. Liu, and K. Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus A, 59, 529-537.

Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus A, 59, 428-443.

Wong, V., and K. Emanuel, 2007: Use of cloud radars and radiometers for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12811, doi:10.1029/2007GL029960.

Ravela, S., K. Emanuel and D. McLaughlin, 2007: Data Assimilation by Field Alignment. Physica(D), 230, 127-145

Emanuel, K., 2007: Comment on “Sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin” by Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, and Robert E. Davis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL026942.

Emanuel K., 2007: Phaeton’s reins: The human hand in climate change. Boston Review, 32. (Note: this is non-peer reviewed essay.)

Fita, L., R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel and C. Ramis, 2007: Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 41–56.

McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis, E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum and K. A. Emanuel, 2006: Analysis of Hurricane Catarina (2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3029-3053

Emanuel, K., 2006: Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach. J. Climate, 19, 4797-4802.

Zurovac-Jevtic, D, Bony, S, Emanuel, K. 2006. On the role of clouds and moisture in tropical waves: A two-dimensional model study. J. Atmos. Sci. 63: 2140-2155

Emanuel, K., 2006: Hurricanes: Tempests in a greenhouse. Physics Today, 59, 74-75.

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006: Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244. Online supplement available here.

Emanuel, K., S. Ravela, E. Vivant and C. Risi. 2006: A Statistical-Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 299–314.Online Supplement

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Online supplement to this paper.

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Divine Wind: The history and science of hurricanes. Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 304 pp.

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Genesis and maintenance of “Mediterranean hurricanes”. Advances in Geosciences, 2, 217-220

Sugiyama, M., P. H. Stone, and K. A. Emanuel, 2005: The Role of Relative Humidity in Radiative–Convective Equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2001–2011

Bony, S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2005: On the role of moist processes in tropical Intraseasonal variability: cloud–radiation and moisture–convection Feedbacks. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2770–2789

Lin, I.-I., C.-C. Wu, K. A. Emanuel, I.-H. Lee, C.-R. Wu and I.-F. Pun, 2005: The interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a warm ocean eddy. Mon. Wea. Rev.,133, 2635-2649.

Cerlini, P. B., K. A. Emanuel, and E. Todini, 2005: Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: Preliminary results. Hydro. Earth Sys. Sci., 9, 285-299.

Emanuel, K., 2004: Tropical Cyclone Energetics and Structure. In Atmospheric Turbulence and Mesoscale Meteorology, E. Fedorovich, R. Rotunno and B. Stevens, editors, Cambridge University Press, 280 pp. Reprinted here with permission.

Boos, W. R., J. R. Scott and K. A. Emanuel, 2004: Transient diapycnal mixing and the meridional overturning circulation. J. Phys. Ocean., 34, 334-341

Free, M., M. Bister and K. Emanuel, 2004: Potential intensity of tropical cyclones: Comparison of results from radiosonde and reanalysis data. J. Climate, 17, 1722-1727

Emanuel, K., C. DesAutels, C. Holloway and R. Korty, 2004: Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 843-858

Pauluis, O. and K. Emanuel, 2004: Numerical instability resulting from infrequent calculation of radiative heating. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 673-686.

Parodi, A., K. A. Emanuel, and A. Provenzale, 2003: Plume patterns in radiative-convective flows. New J. Physics, 5, 106.1-106.17.

Pielke, R. A., Jr., and co-authors, 2003: The USWRP workshop on the research needs of the private sector. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 934, ES53-ES67

Emanuel, K., 2003: A century of scientific progress. In Hurricane! Coping with Disaster, pp. 177-216, Robert Simpson, Ed., Amer. Geophys. Union, Washington, D.C.

Nong, S. and K. Emanuel, 2003: A numerical study of the genesis of concentric eyewalls in hurricanes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3323-3338.

Hansen, J. A. and Emanuel, K. A., 2003: Forecast 4-D var: Exploiting model output statistics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1255-1267.

Emanuel, K., 2003: A similarity hypothesis for air-sea exchange at extreme wind speeds. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1420-1428.

Emanuel, K., 2003: Tropical Cyclones. Ann Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 75-104.

Emanuel, K. A., 2002: A simple model of multiple climate regimes. J. Geophys. Res., 107(0), 10.1029/2001JD001002

Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 2, Climatology for 1982-1995. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4621, doi: 10.1029/2001JD000780.

Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 1, Interannual to interdecadel variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/2001JD000776.

Morss, R. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Influence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,128, 285-322.

Lindzen, R. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: Greenhouse effect. In Encyclopedia of Global Change. Oxford. Univ. Press, New York, pp. 562-566.

Andreas, E. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: Effects of sea spray on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3741-3751.

Bony, S. and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: A parameterization of the cloudiness associated with cumulus convection: evaluation using TOGA COARE data. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3158-3183.

Emanuel, K.A., 2001: The contribution of tropical cyclones to the oceans’ meridional heat transport. J. Geophys. Res., 106, D14, 14,771-14,781.

Robe, F. R. and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: The effect of vertical wind shear on radiative-convective equilibrium states. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1427-1445.

Emanuel, K. A., 2001: The role of water in atmospheric dynamics and climate. In Meteorology at the Millennium, Robert Pearce, editor, Acad. Press, 333 pp.

Morss, R.E., K. A. Emanuel and C. Snyder, 2001: Idealized adaptive observation strategies for improving numerical weather prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 210-232.

Wu, X., M. W. Moncrieff and K. A. Emanuel, 2000: Evaluation of large-scale forcing during TOGA COARE for cloud-resolving models and single-column models. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2977-2985.

Emanuel, K.A., 2000: A statistical analysis of hurricane intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1139-1152.

Murnane, R. J., and co-authors, 2000: Model estimates of hurricane wind speed probabilities. EOS, 81, 433-438.

Tompkins, A. M. and K. A. Emanuel, 2000: Simulated equilibrium tropical temperature and water vapor profiles and their sensitivity to vertical resolution. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 126, 1219-1238.

Joly, A., K. A. Browning, P. Bessemoulin, J.-P. Cammas, G. Caniaux, J.-P. Chalon, S. A. Clough, R. Dirks, K. A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, R. Gall, T. D. Hewson, P. H. Hildebrand, D. Jorgensen, F. Lalaurette, R. H. Langland, Y. Lamaitre, P. Mascart, J. A. Moore, O. Persson, F. Roux, M. A. Shapiro, C. Snyder, Z. Toth and R. M. Wakimoto, 1999: Overview of the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track EXperiment (FASTEX) project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3131-3163.

Szunyogh, L., Z. Toth, K. A. Emanuel, C. Bishop, J. Woolen, T. Marchok, R. Morss and C. Snyder, 1999: Ensemble-based targeting experiments during FASTEX: the impact of dropsonde data from the LEAR jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3189-3218.

Forest, C. E., J. A. Wolfe, P. Molnar, and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: Paleoaltimetry incorporating atmospheric physics and botanical estimates of paleoclimate. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., 111, 497-511

Molnar, P. and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: Temperature profiles in radiative-convective equilibrium above surfaces at different heights. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 24265-24484.

Zheng, X., E. A. B. Eltahir and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: A mechanism relating tropical Atlantic spring sea surface temperature and West African rainfall. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 125, 1129-1163.

Emanuel, K. A., 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401, 665-669.

Nilsson, J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1999: Equilibrium atmospheres of a two-column radiative convective model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2239-2264.

Schade, L. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: The ocean’s effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: Results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 642-651.

Emanuel, K. A., and M. Zivkovic-Rothman, 1999: Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1766-1782.

Emanuel, K.A., 1999: Quasi-equilibrium thinking. In General circulation model development: past, present and future, D. Randall, Ed., Academic Press, N.Y., 807 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., 1998: The power of a hurricane: An example of reckless driving on the information superhighway. Weather, 54, 107-108.

Forest, C.E., J.A. Wolfe, P. Molnar and K.A. Emanuel, 1999: Paleoaltimetry incorporating atmospheric physics and botanical estimates of paleoclimate. Bull. Geol. Soc. Amer., 111, 497-511.

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atm. Phys., 52, 233-240.

Lorenz, E.N., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: Simulations with a small model. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 399-414.

Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhan, G. Berz, K.A. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S.-L. Shieh, P. Webster and K. McGuffie, 1998: Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 19-38.

Emanuel, K., E. Kalnay, C. Bishop, R. Elsberry, R. Gelaro, D. Keyser, S. Lord, D. Rogers, S. Shapiro, C. Snyder and C. Velden, 1997: Observations in aid of weather prediction for North America: Report of Prospectus Development Team Seven. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2859-2868.

Joly, A., D. Jorgensen, M.A. Shapiro, A. Thorpe, P. Bessemoulin, K.A. Browning, J-P Cammas, J-P Chalon, S.A. Clough, K.A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, R. Gall, P. Hildebrand, R.H. Langland, Y. Lemaitre, P. Lynch, J.A. Moore, P. Old G. Pearson, C. Snyder, and R.M. Wakimoto, 1997:The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1917-1940.

Emanuel, K.A., J.D. Neelin, and C.S. Bretherton, 1997: Reply to comments by Bjorn Stevens, David A. Randall, Xin Lin and Michael T. Montgomery on ‘On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres’. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 123, 1779-1782.

Emanuel, K.A., and M. Bister, 1997: Reply to S. Klein. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2778-2779.

Emanuel, K.A., 1997: Climate variations and hurricane activity: Some theoretical considerations. Hurricanes, Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts. H.F. Diaz and R.S. Pulwarty (eds.), Springer Verlag (Heidelberg), 55-65.

Emanuel, K.A., 1997: Some aspects of hurricane inner-core dynamics and energetics. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1014-1026.

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1997: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2662-2682.

Robe, F.R., and K.A. Emanuel, 1996: Dependence of tropical convection on radiative forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3265-3275.

Emanuel, K.A., and M. Bister, 1996: Moist convective velocity and buoyancy scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3276-3285.

Emanuel, K.A., and R.T. Pierrehumbert, 1996: Microphysical and dynamical control of tropospheric water vapor. In Clouds, Chemistry, and Climate, P. J. Crutzen and V. Ramanathan, Eds., Springer-verlag, Berlin, 264 pp.

Yano, J.-I., J.C. McWilliams, M.W. Moncrieff, and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Hierarchical tropical cloud systems in an analog shallow-water model. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1723-1742.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement: Part II: Tropical storm Ana (1991) and hurricane Andrew (1992). Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 93-109.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement: Part I: A case study of hurricane Bob (1991). Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 69-92.

Forest, C.E., P. Molnar, and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Paleoaltimetry from energy conservation principles. Nature, 374, 347-350.

Emanuel, K.A., D. Raymond, A. Betts, L. Bosart, C. Bretherton, K. Droegemeier, B. Farrell, J. M. Fritsch, R. Houze, M. LeMone, D. Lilly, R. Rotunno, M. Shapiro, R. Smith, and A Thorpe, 1995: Report of the first prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1194-1208.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995: Comments on “Global climate change and tropical cyclones.” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 2241-2243.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995: On thermally direct circulations in moist atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1529-1534.

Emanuel, K.A., K. Speer, R. Rotunno, R. Srivastava, and M. Molina, 1995: Hypercanes: A possible link in global extinction scenarios. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 13755-13765.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969-3976.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995: The behavior of a simple hurricane model using a convective scheme based on subcloud-layer entropy equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3959-3968.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1994: On hurricane outflow structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1995-2003.

Renno, N.O., P.H. Stone, and K.A. Emanuel, 1994: A radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrological cycle. Part II: Sensitivity to large changes in solar forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 17001-17020.

Renno, N.O., K.A. Emanuel, and P.H. Stone, 1994: Radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrological cycle. Part I: Formulation and sensitivity to model parameters. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14429-14441.

Emanuel, K.A., 1994: The physics of tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific. In Tropical Cyclone Disasters. Lighthill, J., Zhemin, Z., Holland, G., and Emanuel, K., editors. Peking Univ. Press, Beijing, 588 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., J. D. Neelin, and C.S. Bretherton, 1994: On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 120, 1111-1143.

Emanuel, K.A., 1994: Tropical Cyclone Disasters. (Editor, with J. Lighthill, Z. Zhemin, and G. Holland). Peking Press, 588 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, New York, 580 pp.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1993: Interaction of a baroclinic vortex with background shear: application to hurricane movement. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 62-76.

Langford, J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1993: An unmanned aircraft for dropwindsonde deployment and hurricane reconnaissance. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 74, 367-375.

Islam, S., R.L. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1993: Predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the tropics. J. Appl. Meteor., 32, 297-310.

Emanuel, K.A., 1993: The effect of convective response time on WISHE modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1763-1775.

Emanuel, K.A., 1993: The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models. (Editor, with D.J. Raymond) Meteor. Mono. 24, No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 246 pp.

Castelli, F., R. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1993: An analytical approach to the nonlinear dynamics of moist frontogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1504-1521.

Elsberry R., K.A. Emanuel, G. Holland, H. Gerrish, M. DeMaria, and C. Guard, 1992: Is there any hope for tropical cyclone intensity prediction? A panel discussion. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 73, 264-275.

Yano, J.-I., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991: An improved WISHE model of the equatorial atmosphere and its coupling with the stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 377-389.

Huang, H.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991: The effects of evaporation on frontogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 619-628.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991: Comments on “Carbon dioxide and hurricanes: implications of northern hemispheric warming for Atlantic/Caribbean storms.” Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 47, 83-84.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991: The theory of hurricanes. Annual Rev. Fluid Mech., 23, 179-196.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991: A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 2313-2335.

Davis, C.A., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991: Potential vorticity diagnostics of cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1929-1953.

Ramirez, J.A., R.L. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1990: Stabilization functions of unforced cumulus clouds: Their nature and components. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 2047-2059.

Xu, K., and K.A. Emanuel, 1989: Is the tropical atmosphere conditionally unstable? Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1471-1479.

Emanuel, K.A., 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3431-3456.

Emanuel, K.A., 1989: Dynamical theories of tropical convection. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 37, 3-10. copyright Commonwealth of Australia reproduced by permission.