Research Papers

Copyright Notice: Many of the links included here are to publications copyrighted by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to place copies of these publications on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copies provided here are accurate copies of the published work. Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from these works in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/AMS) or from the AMS at (617) 227-2425 or copyright@ametsoc.org.

 

Nystrom, R. G., F. Zhang, E. B. Munsell, S. A. Braun, J. A. Sippel. Y. Weng, and K. Emanuel, 2018: Predictability and dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) explored through convection-permitting ensemble sensitivity experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 401-424.

Wing, A. A., K. Emanuel, C.E. Holloway and C. Muller, 2017: Convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations: A review. Surv. Geophys. DOI 10.1007/s10712-017-9408-4.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc Net. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1716222114.

Garner, A. J., M. E.  Mann, K. A. Emanuel, R. E. Kopp, N. Lin, , R. B. Alley, B. P. Horton, R. M. DeConto, J. P. Donnelly, and D. Pollard, 2017: Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1703568114.

Bony, S., and co-authors: EUREC4A, 2017: A field campaign to elucidate the couplings between clouds, convection and circulation. Surv. Gephys. DOI 10.1007/s10712-017-9428-0

Agard, V. and K. Emanuel, 2017: Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of peak CAPE in continental convective storm environments. J. Amos.Sci., 74, 3043-3054.

Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2017: On the seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone potential intensity. J. Clim., 30, 6085-6096.

Emanuel, K., and F. Zhang, 2017: The role of inner-core moisture in tropical cyclone predictability and practical forecast skill. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2315-2324.

Pausata, F. S. R., K. A. Emanuel, M. Chiacchio, G. T. Diro, Q. Zhang, L. Sushama, J.C. Stager, and J. P. Donnelly, 2017: Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1619111114.

Emanuel, K., 2017: A fast intensity simulator for tropical cyclone risk analysis. Nat. Hazards, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2890-7.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Will global warming make hurricane forecasting more difficult? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 495-501.

Zhang, L., K. B. Karnauskas, J. P. Donnelly, and K. Emanuel, 2017: Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming: Application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models. J. Clim., 30, 1233-1243.

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2017: Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models. J. Clim, 30, 279-299.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. A. Zamora, 2017: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels. J. Clim, 30, 649-667.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2016: Comment on ‘Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones’. Environ. Res. Lett., 11, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/068001

Emanuel. K., and F. Zhang, 2016: On the predictability and error sources of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci, 73, 3739-3747

Balaguru, K., G. R. Foltz, L. R. Leung, and K. A. Emanuel, 2016: Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons. Nature Comm., DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13670.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and S. J. Carmargo, 2016: Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate, 29, 5725-5739.

Zhang, F. and K. Emanuel, 2016: On the role of surface fluxes and WISHE in tropical cyclone intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 2011-2019.

O’Neill, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, and G. R. Flierl, 2016: Weak jets and strong cyclones: Shallow-water modeling of giant planet polar caps. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1841-1855.

Reed, A. J., M E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, N. Lin, B. P. Horton, A.C. Kemp, and J. P. Donnelly, 2015: Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic eraProc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615.

Reed, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and D. W. Titley, 2015: An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7506-7519. Copyright 2015, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Wing, A.A., K. Emanuel, and S. Solomon, 2015: On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8669–8677. Copyright 2015, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Walsh, K. and co-authors, 2015: Hurricanes and climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 997-1017.

Emanuel, K., 2015: Effect of upper-ocean evolution on projected trends in tropical cyclone activity. J. Clim., 28, 8165-8170.

Balaguru, K., G. R. Foltz, L R. Leung, E. D'Asaro, K. A. Emanuel, HJ. Liu, and S. E. Zedler, 2015: Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean’s impact on tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6739–6746.

Lin, N. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Grey swan tropical cyclones. Nature Clim. Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2777. Supplementary information.

Chavas, D. R., N. Lin, and K. Emanuel, 2015: A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3647–3662.

Dwyer, J. D.,  S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, M. Biasutti, K. A. Emanuel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and M. K. Tippett, 2015: Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Length of the Tropical Cyclone Season. J. Climate, 28, 6181–6192. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00686.1

O'Neill, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, and G. R. Flierl, 2015: Polar vortex formation in giant planet atmospheres due to moist convection. Nature Geo., 8, 523-526.

Neumann, J. E., K. A. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. C. Ludwig, and C. Verly, 2015: Risks of coastal storm surge and the effect of sea level rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Sustainability, 7, 6553-6572

Kowch, R. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Are special processes at work in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones? Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 878-882.

Daloz, A.S., and co-authors, 2015: Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1333-1361.

Cronin, T. W., K. A. Emanuel, and P. Molnar, 2014: Island precipitation enhancement and the diurnal cycle in radiative-convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2443

Neumann, J. E., K. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. Ludwig, P. Kirshen, K. Bosma, and J. Martinich, 2014: Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, ad benefits of mitigation policy. Clim. Change, 128, doi 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z

Garman, D., K. Emanuel, and B. Phillips, 2014: Breaking the climate deadlock. Issues in Science and Technology, 30, 75-82.

Lin, N., P. Lane, K. A. Emanuel, R. M., Sullivan, and J. P. Donnelly, 2014: Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.

Vincent, E. M., K. A. Emanuel, L. Matthieu, J. Vialard, and G. Madec, 2014: Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones. J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 6, DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000327.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, 509, 349-352.

Vergados, P., Z. J. Luo, K. Emanuel, and A. J. Mannucci, 2014: Observational tests of hurricane intensity estimations using GPS radio occultations. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 1936-1948, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020934.

Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2014: Equilibrium tropical cyclone size in an idealized state of axisymmetric radiative–convective equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1663-1680.

Aerts, C. J. H. J., W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, N. Lin, H. de Moel, and E. O. Michel-Kerjan, 2014: Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science, 344, 473-475.

Wing, A. A., and K. A. Emanuel, 2014: Physical mechanisms controlling self-aggregation of convection in idealized numerical modeling simulations. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 6, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000269.

Emanuel, K., A. A. Wing, and E. M. Vincent, 2014: Radiative-Convective Instability. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 6, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000270.

Bony, S., B. Stevens, I. H. Held, J. F. Mitchell, J.-L. DuFresne, K. A. Emanuel, P. Friedlingstein, S. Griffies, and C. Senior, 2013: Carbon dioxide and climate: Perspectives on a scientific assessment. In Climate Science for Serving Society, Springer, pp 391-413.

Zhu, L., S. M. Quiring, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation risk in Texas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6225–6230, doi:10.1002/2013GL058284.

Sieron, S. B., F. Zhang, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Feasibility of tropical cyclone intensity estimation using satellite-borne radiometer measurements: An observing system simulation experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5332–5336, doi:10.1002/grl.50973.

Strazzo, S., J. B. Elsner, J.C. Trapnier, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi: 10.1002/jame.20036.  

Khairoutdinov, M, and K. Emanuel, 2013: Rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulated by a cloud-resolving model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi: 10.1002/2013MS000253.  

Cronin, T. W., and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: The climate time scale in the approach to radiative-convective equilibrium. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi:10.1002/jame.20049.  

Emanuel, K.A., 2013: Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 110, doi/10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

Emanuel, K., and A. Sobel, 2013: Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing.  J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi:10.1002/jame.20032.   

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2013: Medicane risk in a changing climate. J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50475.   

Emanuel, K., S. Solomon, S., D. Folini, S. Davis, and C. Cagnazzo, 2013: Influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Clim., 26, 2288-2301.

Aerts, J. C. J. H., N. Lin, W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, and H. de Moel, 2013: Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City. Risk Analysis, 33,  DOI: 10.1111/risa.12008

Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and J. L. Evans, 2013: Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13,383–13,392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380.  

Kunkel, K. E., and co-authors, 2013: Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514.

Berlengiero, M., K. A. Emanuel, J. von Hardenberg, A. Provenzale, and E. A. Spiegel, 2012: Internally cooled convection: A fillip for Philip. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simulat. 17, 1998–2007

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2012: A ventilation index for tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1901-1912.

Bell, M. M., M. T. Montgomery, and K. A. Emanuel, 2012: Air-sea enthalpy and momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3197-3222.

Leibowicz, B. D., D. S. Abbot, K. Emanuel, and E. Tziperman, 2012: Correlation between present-day model simulation of Arctic cloud radiative forcing and sea ice consistent with positive winter convective cloud feedback. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 4, doi:10.1029/2012MS000153.   

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2012: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to ventilation in an axisymmetric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2394-2413.

Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Wea. Clim. Soc., 4, 110-117.

Emanuel, K., 2012: Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow: Part II: Implications for storm intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 988-996.

Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1389.

Mendelsohn R., K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, and L. Bakkensen, 2012: The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1357.

Klima, K., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, M. G. Morgan, and I Grossman, 2011: Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, doi: 10.1021/es202640p.

Klima, K., M. G. Morgan, I. Grossman, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment. Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, 4242–4248.

Emanuel, K., 2011: Global warming effects on U.S. hurricane damage. Wea. Clim. Soc., 3, 261-268.

Emanuel, K., and R. Rotunno, 2011: Self-Stratification of Tropical Cyclone Outflow. Part I: Implications for Storm Structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2236-2249.

Parodi, A., E. Foufoula-Georgiou, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Signature of microphysics on spatial rainfall statisticsJ. Geophys. Res., 116, D14119, doi:10.1029/2010JD015124.   

Bister, M., N. Renno, O. Pauluis, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Comment on Makarieva et al. 'A critique of some modern applications of the Carnot heat engine concept: the dissipative heat engine cannot exist'. Proc. R. Soc., A467, 1-6.

Rappin, E. D., D. S. Nolan, and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium with shearQ. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136, 1954–1971.

Emanuel, K., K. Oouchi, M. Satoh, T. Hirofumi, and Y. Yamada, 2010: Comparison of explicitly simulated and downscaled tropical cyclone activity in a high-resolution global climate modelJ. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 2, DOI:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.9.

Gnanadesikan, A., K. Emanuel, G.A. Vecchi, W. G. Anderson, and R. Hallberg, 2010: How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclonesGeophys. Res. Lett., 37, doi:10.1029/2010GL044514. 

Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: A QuickSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone sizeGeophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18816, doi:10.1029/2010GL044558. 

Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. Vanmarcke, 2010: Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD013630. 

Emanuel, K., and T. Jagger, 2010: On estimating hurricane return periodsJ. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 49, 837-844.

Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2010: Midlevel ventilation's constraint on tropical cyclone intensityJ. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1817-1830.

Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate changeNature Geo., 3, 157-163.

Federov, A. V., C. M. Breierly, and K. Emanuel, 2010: Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epochNature463, 1066-1070.

Emanuel, K., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.

Parodi, A., and K. Emanuel, 2009: A theory for buoyancy and velocity scales in deep moist convectionJ. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3449-3463.

Muller, C. J., L. E. Back, P. A. O'Gorman, and K. A. Emanuel, 2009: A model for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vaporGeophys. Res.Lett.36, L16804, doi:10.1029/2009GL039667. 

Dean, L., K. A. Emanuel, and D. R. Chavas, 2009: On the size distribution of Atlantic tropical cyclonesGeophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14803, doi:10.1029/2009GL039051.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2009: Annual intensification of the Somali jet in a quasi-equilibrium framework: Observational compositesQuart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 135, 319-335.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008: Wind–evaporation feedback and the axisymmetric transition to angular momentum–conserving Hadley flowJ. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3758-3778.

Emanuel, K., J. Callaghan, and P. Otto, 2008: A hypothesis for the re-development of warm-core cyclones over northern AustraliaMon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3863-3872.

Woodruff, J. D., J. P. Donnelly, K. Emanuel, and P. Lane, 2008: Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.

Emanuel, K., 2008: The Hurricane-Climate ConnectionBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, ES10-ES20.

Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008: Wind–evaporation feedback and abrupt seasonal transitions of weak, axisymmetric Hadley circulationsJ. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2194-2214.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulationsBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc,, 89, 347-367.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, and J. R. Scott, 2008: Tropical cyclone-induced upper-ocean mixing and climate: Application to equable climates. J. Climate21, 638-654.

Luo, Z., G. L. Stephens, K. A. Emanuel, D. G. Vane, N. Tourville, and J. M. Haynes, 2008: On the use of CloudSat and MODIS data for estimating hurricane intensityIEEE Geoscience Remote Sensing Lett., 5, 13-16.

Pasquero, C., and K. Emanuel, 2008: Tropical cyclones and transient upper-ocean warmingJ. Climate21, 149-162.

Emanuel, K., 2008: Back to Norway: An essay. In Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Meteorological Monographs, 33, 87–96.

Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative–convective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.

Abbot, D. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: A tropical and subtropical land-sea-atmosphere drought oscillation mechanismJ. Atmos. Sci.64, 4458-4466.

Emanuel, K., 2007: Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipationJ. Climate20, 5497-5509.

Emanuel, K., 2007: Quasi-Equilibrium Dynamics of the Tropical Atmosphere. In The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. Schneider and A. H. Sobel, editors, Princeton University Press, 385 pp. Click here for link to whole book. Chapter 7 reprinted with kind permission from Princeton University Press.

Korty, R. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: The dynamic response of the winter stratosphere to an equable climate surface temperature gradientJ. Climate20, 5213-5228.

Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel and A.H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate20, 4819-4834.

Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster, 2007: Atlantic tropical cyclones revisitedEOS88, 349-350.

Frappier, A., T. Knutson, K.-B. Liu, and K. Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modellingTellus A59, 529-537.

Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate modelsTellus A59, 428-443.

Wong, V., and K. Emanuel, 2007: Use of cloud radars and radiometers for tropical cyclone intensity estimationGeophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12811, doi:10.1029/2007GL029960. 

Ravela, S.,  K. Emanuel and D. McLaughlin, 2007: Data Assimilation by Field AlignmentPhysica(D)230, 127-145

Emanuel, K., 2007: Comment on "Sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin" by Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, and Robert E. DavisGeophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL026942. 

Emanuel K., 2007:  Phaeton's reins: The human hand in climate changeBoston Review32. (Note: this is non-peer reviewed essay.)

Fita, L., R. Romero, A. Luque, K. Emanuel and C. Ramis, 2007: Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.7, 41–56.

McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis, E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum and K. A. Emanuel, 2006: Analysis of Hurricane Catarina (2004)Mon. Wea. Rev.134, 3029-3053

Emanuel, K., 2006:  Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach.  J. Climate19, 4797-4802.

Zurovac-Jevtic, D, Bony, S, Emanuel, K. 2006. On the role of clouds and moisture in tropical waves: A two-dimensional model study. J. Atmos. Sci. 63: 2140-2155

Emanuel, K., 2006: Hurricanes: Tempests in a greenhouse. Physics Today59, 74-75

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006: Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS87, 233-244. Online supplement available here

Emanuel, K., S. Ravela, E. Vivant and C. Risi. 2006: A Statistical-Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 299–314.Online Supplement

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 yearsNature436, 686-688. Online supplement to this paper.

Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Divine WindThe history and science of hurricanes. Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 304 pp.

Emanuel, K. A., 2005:  Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes". Advances in Geosciences2, 217-220

Sugiyama, M., P. H. Stone, and K. A. Emanuel, 2005: The Role of Relative Humidity in Radiative–Convective Equilibrium.  J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2001–2011

Bony, S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2005: On the role of moist processes in tropical Intraseasonal variability: cloud–radiation and moisture–convection Feedbacks.  J. Atmos. Sci.62, 2770–2789

Lin, I.-I., C.-C. Wu, K. A. Emanuel, I.-H. Lee, C.-R. Wu and  I.-F. Pun, 2005: The interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a warm ocean eddy. Mon. Wea. Rev.,133, 2635-2649.

Cerlini, P. B., K. A. Emanuel, and E. Todini, 2005: Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: Preliminary results.  Hydro. Earth Sys. Sci., 9, 285-299.

Emanuel, K., 2004:  Tropical Cyclone Energetics and Structure. In Atmospheric Turbulence and Mesoscale Meteorology, E. Fedorovich, R. Rotunno and B. Stevens, editors, Cambridge University Press, 280 pp. Reprinted here with permission.

Boos, W. R., J. R. Scott and K. A. Emanuel, 2004: Transient diapycnal mixing and the meridional overturning circulation.  J. Phys. Ocean., 34, 334-341

Free, M., M. Bister and K. Emanuel, 2004: Potential intensity of tropical cyclones: Comparison of results from radiosonde and reanalysis data. J. Climate17, 1722-1727

Emanuel, K., C. DesAutels, C. Holloway and R. Korty, 2004: Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity.  J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 843-858

Pauluis, O. and K. Emanuel, 2004: Numerical instability resulting from infrequent calculation of radiative heating. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 673-686.

Parodi, A., K. A. Emanuel, and A. Provenzale, 2003: Plume patterns in radiative-convective flowsNew J. Physics5, 106.1-106.17.

Pielke, R. A., Jr., and co-authors, 2003: The USWRP workshop on the research needs of the private sector. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 934, ES53-ES67

Emanuel, K., 2003: A century of scientific progress. In Hurricane! Coping with Disaster, pp. 177-216, Robert Simpson, Ed., Amer. Geophys. Union, Washington, D.C.

Nong, S. and K. Emanuel, 2003: A numerical study of the genesis of concentric eyewalls in hurricanes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3323-3338.

Hansen, J. A. and Emanuel, K. A., 2003: Forecast 4-D var:  Exploiting model output statistics. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1255-1267.

Emanuel, K., 2003: A similarity hypothesis for air-sea exchange at extreme wind speeds. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1420-1428.

Emanuel, K., 2003: Tropical Cyclones. Ann Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 75-104.

Emanuel, K. A., 2002: A simple model of multiple climate regimes. J. Geophys. Res., 107(0), 10.1029/2001JD001002  

Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 2, Climatology for 1982-1995. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4621, doi: 10.1029/2001JD000780.

Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 1, Interannual to interdecadel variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/2001JD000776. 

Morss, R. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Influence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,128, 285-322.

Lindzen, R. S., and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: Greenhouse effect. In Encyclopedia of Global Change. Oxford. Univ. Press, New York, pp. 562-566.

Andreas, E. L., and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: Effects of sea spray on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 58,  3741-3751.

Bony, S. and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: A parameterization of the cloudiness associated with cumulus convection: evaluation using TOGA COARE data. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3158-3183.

Emanuel, K.A., 2001: The contribution of tropical cyclones to the oceans' meridional heat transport.  J. Geophys. Res., 106, D14, 14,771-14,781. 

Robe, F. R. and K. A. Emanuel, 2001: The effect of vertical wind shear on radiative-convective equilibrium states. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1427-1445.

Emanuel, K. A., 2001: The role of water in atmospheric dynamics and climate. In Meteorology at the Millennium, Robert Pearce, editor, Acad. Press, 333 pp.

Morss, R.E., K. A. Emanuel and C. Snyder, 2001: Idealized adaptive observation strategies for improving numerical weather prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 210-232.

Wu, X., M. W. Moncrieff and K. A. Emanuel, 2000: Evaluation of large-scale forcing during TOGA COARE for cloud-resolving models and single-column models. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2977-2985.

Emanuel, K.A., 2000: A statistical analysis of hurricane intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1139-1152.

Murnane, R. J., and co-authors, 2000: Model estimates of hurricane wind speed probabilities. EOS81, 433-438. 

Tompkins, A. M. and K. A. Emanuel, 2000:  Simulated equilibrium tropical temperature and water vapor profiles and their sensitivity to vertical resolution. Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc.126, 1219-1238.

Joly, A., K. A. Browning, P. Bessemoulin, J.-P. Cammas, G. Caniaux, J.-P. Chalon, S. A. Clough, R. Dirks, K. A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, R. Gall, T. D. Hewson, P. H. Hildebrand, D. Jorgensen, F. Lalaurette, R. H. Langland, Y. Lamaitre, P. Mascart, J. A. Moore, O. Persson, F. Roux, M. A. Shapiro, C. Snyder, Z. Toth and R. M. Wakimoto, 1999: Overview of the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track EXperiment (FASTEX) project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3131-3163.

Szunyogh, L., Z. Toth, K. A. Emanuel, C. Bishop, J. Woolen, T. Marchok, R. Morss and C. Snyder, 1999: Ensemble-based targeting experiments during FASTEX: the impact of dropsonde data from the LEAR jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3189-3218.

Forest, C. E., J. A. Wolfe, P. Molnar, and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: Paleoaltimetry incorporating atmospheric physics and botanical estimates of paleoclimate. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., 111, 497-511

Molnar, P. and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: Temperature profiles in radiative-convective equilibrium above surfaces at different heights. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 24265-24484.

Zheng, X., E. A. B. Eltahir and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: A mechanism relating tropical Atlantic spring sea surface temperature and West African rainfall.  Quart. J. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 125, 1129-1163. 

Emanuel, K. A., 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401, 665-669.

Nilsson, J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1999: Equilibrium atmospheres of a two-column radiative convective model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125,  2239-2264.

Schade, L. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: The ocean's effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: Results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 642-651.

Emanuel, K. A., and M. Zivkovic-Rothman, 1999: Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1766-1782.

Emanuel, K.A., 1999: Quasi-equilibrium thinking. In General circulation model development: past, present and future, D. Randall, Ed., Academic Press, N.Y., 807 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., 1998: The power of a hurricane: An example of reckless driving on the information superhighway. Weather, 54, 107-108.

Forest, C.E., J.A. Wolfe, P. Molnar and K.A. Emanuel, 1999: Paleoaltimetry incorporating atmospheric physics and botanical estimates of paleoclimate.  Bull. Geol. Soc. Amer., 111, 497-511.

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity.  Meteor. Atm. Phys., 52, 233-240.

Lorenz, E.N., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: Simulations with a small model.  J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 399-414.

Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhan, G. Berz, K.A. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S.-L. Shieh, P. Webster and K. McGuffie, 1998: Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 19-38.

Emanuel, K., E. Kalnay, C. Bishop, R. Elsberry, R. Gelaro, D. Keyser, S. Lord, D. Rogers, S. Shapiro, C. Snyder and C. Velden, 1997: Observations in aid of weather prediction for North America: Report of Prospectus Development Team Seven. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2859-2868.

Joly, A., D. Jorgensen, M.A. Shapiro, A. Thorpe, P. Bessemoulin, K.A. Browning, J-P Cammas, J-P Chalon, S.A. Clough, K.A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, R. Gall, P. Hildebrand, R.H. Langland, Y. Lemaitre, P. Lynch, J.A. Moore, P. Old G. Pearson, C. Snyder, and R.M. Wakimoto, 1997:The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1917-1940.

Emanuel, K.A., J.D. Neelin, and C.S. Bretherton, 1997: Reply to comments by Bjorn Stevens, David A. Randall, Xin Lin and Michael T. Montgomery on 'On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres'. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 123, 1779-1782.

Emanuel, K.A., and M. Bister, 1997: Reply to S. Klein.  J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2778-2779.

Emanuel, K.A., 1997: Climate variations and hurricane activity: Some theoretical considerations. Hurricanes, Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts.  H.F. Diaz and R.S. Pulwarty (eds.), Springer Verlag (Heidelberg), 55-65.

Emanuel, K.A., 1997: Some aspects of hurricane inner-core dynamics and energetics.  J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1014-1026.

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1997: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2662-2682.

Robe, F.R., and K.A. Emanuel, 1996: Dependence of tropical convection on radiative forcing.  J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3265-3275.

Emanuel, K.A., and M. Bister, 1996: Moist convective velocity and buoyancy scales.  J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3276-3285.

Emanuel, K.A., and R.T. Pierrehumbert, 1996: Microphysical and dynamical control of tropospheric water vapor.  In Clouds, Chemistry, and Climate, P. J. Crutzen and V. Ramanathan, Eds., Springer-verlag, Berlin, 264 pp.

Yano, J.-I., J.C. McWilliams, M.W. Moncrieff, and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Hierarchical tropical cloud systems in an analog shallow-water model.  J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1723-1742.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1995:  Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement: Part II: Tropical storm Ana (1991) and hurricane Andrew (1992).  Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 93-109.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1995:  Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement: Part I: A  case study of hurricane Bob (1991).  Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 69-92.

Forest, C.E., P. Molnar, and K.A. Emanuel, 1995: Paleoaltimetry from energy conservation principles. Nature, 374, 347-350.

Emanuel, K.A., D. Raymond, A. Betts, L. Bosart, C. Bretherton, K. Droegemeier, B. Farrell, J. M. Fritsch, R. Houze, M. LeMone, D. Lilly, R. Rotunno, M. Shapiro, R. Smith, and A Thorpe, 1995:  Report of the first prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1194-1208.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995:  Comments on "Global climate change and tropical cyclones."  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 2241-2243.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995:  On thermally direct circulations in moist atmospheres.  J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1529-1534.

Emanuel, K.A., K. Speer, R. Rotunno, R. Srivastava, and M. Molina, 1995:  Hypercanes: A possible link in global extinction scenarios.  J. Geophys. Res., 100, 13755-13765. 

Emanuel, K.A., 1995:  Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics.  J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969-3976.

Emanuel, K.A., 1995:  The behavior of a simple hurricane model using a convective scheme based on subcloud-layer entropy equilibrium.  J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3959-3968.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1994:  On hurricane outflow structure.  J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1995-2003.

Renno, N.O., P.H. Stone, and K.A. Emanuel, 1994: A radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrological cycle.  Part II:  Sensitivity to large changes in solar forcing.  J. Geophys. Res., 99, 17001-17020. 

Renno, N.O., K.A. Emanuel, and P.H. Stone, 1994:  Radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrological cycle.  Part I: Formulation and sensitivity to model parameters.  J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14429-14441. 

Emanuel, K.A., 1994:  The physics of tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific.  In Tropical Cyclone Disasters.  Lighthill, J., Zhemin, Z., Holland, G., and Emanuel, K., editors.  Peking Univ. Press, Beijing, 588 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., J. D. Neelin, and C.S. Bretherton, 1994:  On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres.  Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 120, 1111-1143.

Emanuel, K.A., 1994: Tropical Cyclone Disasters. (Editor, with J. Lighthill, Z. Zhemin, and G. Holland). Peking Press, 588 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection.  Oxford University Press, New York, 580 pp.

Wu, C.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1993:  Interaction of a baroclinic vortex with background shear: application to hurricane movement.  J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 62-76.

Langford, J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1993:  An unmanned aircraft for dropwindsonde deployment and hurricane reconnaissance.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 74, 367-375.

Islam, S., R.L. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1993:  Predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the tropics.  J. Appl. Meteor., 32, 297-310.

Emanuel, K.A., 1993:  The effect of convective response time on WISHE modes.  J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1763-1775.

Emanuel, K.A., 1993: The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models. (Editor, with D.J. Raymond)  Meteor. Mono.  24, No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Boston, 246 pp.

Castelli, F., R. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1993:  An analytical approach to the nonlinear dynamics of moist frontogenesis.  J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1504-1521.

Elsberry R., K.A. Emanuel, G. Holland, H. Gerrish, M. DeMaria, and C. Guard, 1992:  Is there any hope for tropical cyclone intensity prediction?  A panel discussion.  Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 73, 264-275.

Yano, J.-I., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991:  An improved WISHE model of the equatorial atmosphere and its coupling with the stratosphere.  J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 377-389.

Huang, H.-C., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991:  The effects of evaporation on frontogenesis.  J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 619-628.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991:  Comments on "Carbon dioxide and hurricanes: implications of northern hemispheric warming for Atlantic/Caribbean storms."  Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 47, 83-84.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991:  The theory of hurricanes.  Annual Rev. Fluid Mech., 23, 179-196.

Emanuel, K.A., 1991:  A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models.  J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 2313-2335.

Davis, C.A., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991:  Potential vorticity diagnostics of cyclogenesis.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1929-1953.

Ramirez, J.A., R.L. Bras, and K.A. Emanuel, 1990:  Stabilization functions of unforced cumulus clouds:  Their nature and components.  J. Geophys. Res., 95, 2047-2059.

Xu, K., and K.A. Emanuel, 1989:  Is the tropical atmosphere conditionally unstable?  Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1471-1479.

Emanuel, K.A., 1989:  The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis.  J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3431-3456.

Emanuel, K.A., 1989:  Dynamical theories of tropical convection.  Aust. Meteor. Mag.37, 3-10. copyright Commonwealth of Australia reproduced by permission.

Emanuel, K.A., and R. Rotunno, 1989:  Polar lows as arctic hurricanes. Tellus, 41A, 1-17.

Wyss, J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1988:  The pre-storm environment of mid-latitude pre-frontal squall lines.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 790-794.

Emanuel, K.A., 1988:  Toward a general theory of hurricanes.  Amer. Sci., 76, 370-379.

Emanuel, K.A., 1988:  Reply to Bin Wang.  J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3528-3530.

Emanuel, K.A., 1988:  Observational evidence of slantwise convective adjustment.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1805-1816.

Emanuel, K.A., 1988:  The maximum intensity of hurricanes.  J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1143-1155.

Davis, C.A., and K.A. Emanuel, 1988:  Observational evidence for the influence of surface heat fluxes on rapid maritime cyclogenesis.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2649-2659.

Emanuel, K.A., 1987:  An air-sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics.  J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2324-2340.

Emanuel, K.A., M. Fantini, and A.J. Thorpe, 1987:  Baroclinic instability in an environment of small stability to slantwise moist convection.  Part I: Two-dimensional models.  J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1559-1573.

Emanuel, K.A., 1987:  The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate.  Nature, 326, 483-485.

Rotunno, R., and K.A. Emanuel, 1987:  An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones, Part II: Evolutionary study using axisymmetric nonhydrostatic numerical model.  J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 542-561.

Emanuel, K. A., 1986: Nuclear winter: Towards a scientific exercise. Nature, 319, 259.

Wolfsberg, D.G., K.A. Emanuel, and R.E. Passarelli, 1986:  Band formation in a New England winter storm.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1552-1569.

Emanuel, K.A., 1986:  Some dynamical aspects of precipitating convection.  J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 2183-2198.

Emanuel, K.A., 1986:  An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones.  Part I: Steady state maintenance.  J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604.

Thorpe, A.J., and K.A. Emanuel, 1985:  Frontogenesis in the presence of small stability to slantwise convection.  J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1809-1824.

Seltzer, M.A., R.E. Passarelli, and K.A. Emanuel, 1985:  The possible role of symmetric instability in the formation of precipitation bands.  J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2207-2219.

Emanuel, K. A., 1985: Convective adjustment in baroclinic atmospheres. Proceedings of The Jovian Atmospheres, New York, May 6-8 1985. NASA Conf. Publ. 2441.(non peer-reviewed)

Emanuel, K.A., 1985:  What limits front formation?  Nature315, 99.

Emanuel, K.A., 1985:  Comments on "Inertial instability and mesoscale convective systems, Part I."  J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 747-752.

Emanuel, K.A., 1985:  Frontal circulations in the presence of small moist symmetric stability.  J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1062-1071.

Emanuel, K.A., 1984:  Some dynamical aspects of precipitating convection.  Dynamics of Mesoscale Weather Systems, NCAR, 591 pp.

Emanuel, K.A., 1984:  A note on the stability of columnar vortices. J. Fluid Mech., 145, 235-238.

Emanuel, K., and F. Sanders, 1983:  Mesoscale meteorology.  Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 21, 1027-1042.

Emanuel, K.A., 1983:  On assessing local conditional symmetric instability from atmospheric soundings. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 2016-2033.

Emanuel, K.A., 1983:  The Lagrangian parcel dynamics of moist symmetric instability.  J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 2368-2376.

Emanuel, K.A., 1982:  A variational theorem for circulation integrals applied to inviscid symmetric flows with variable stability and shear.  Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc.108, 825-832.

Emanuel, K.A., 1981:  Inertial instability and mesoscale convective systems.  Part II: Symmetric CISK in a baroclinic flow.  J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1080-1097.

Emanuel, K.A., 1981:  A similarity theory for unsaturated downdrafts in clouds.  J. Atmos. Sci., 38,  1541-1557.

Emanuel, K.A., 1980:  Comments on "The circulation associated with a cold front.  Part I: Dry case." J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 907-909.

Emanuel, K.A., 1979:  Inertial instability and mesoscale convective systems.  Part I: Linear theory of inertial instability in rotating, viscous fluids.  J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 2425-2449.

Sanders, F., and K.A. Emanuel, 1977:  The momentum budget and temporal evolution of a mesoscale convective system.  J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 322-330.